Simon-Enrlich Wager

The Simon-Ehrlich Wager, a famous bet between economist Julian Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich, took place in the late 20th century, reflecting contrasting views on resource scarcity and population growth. In 1980, Simon challenged Ehrlich to choose any five commodities, believing their prices would decrease over time due to human innovation and ingenuity. Ehrlich selected copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten, anticipating their scarcity and a subsequent price increase. Over the next decade, the prices of these commodities indeed dropped, validating Simon's optimism about the human capacity to adapt and find substitutes. The wager underscored the importance of technological advancements and human resourcefulness in addressing challenges, highlighting a more optimistic perspective on the planet's ability to sustain a growing population. This episode remains a pivotal moment in the discourse on resource scarcity, emphasizing the role of innovation in shaping our collective future.