Lindy Effect

The Lindy Effect is a concept that measures the expected lifespan or durability of non-perishable things, such as ideas, technologies, books, or institutions, based on their current age. It suggests that the longer something has survived, the more likely it is to endure in the future. The Lindy Effect, named after a delivery in New York, was first proposed by American author Albert Goldman and  it was further popularized by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book Antifragile. The Lindy Effect originated from the observation of comedians at the Lindy’s delicatessen in New York, where it was noted that the longevity of a comedian's career correlated with how long they had already been performing.

In essence, the Lindy Effect applies to things that do not have a natural lifespan, unlike biological entities. For example, if a book has been in circulation for 50 years, it is more likely to remain relevant for another 50 years compared to a newly published book. The same principle applies to ideas, philosophies, and technologies. Ancient texts like The Iliad or religious scriptures, which have survived for centuries, are likely to continue being influential in the future. Similarly, technological inventions like the wheel or writing systems have endured for millennia because they proved their utility and adaptability over time.

The Lindy Effect is particularly relevant in evaluating trends, knowledge, and institutions in modern society. It highlights that new, untested ideas or technologies are more vulnerable to failure, while those that have withstood the test of time are more robust. In finance, for instance, long-established investment strategies are often considered more reliable than novel approaches. In law and governance, long-standing principles such as natural justice or the rule of law are more likely to persist due to their proven effectiveness.

However, the Lindy Effect is not a guarantee of indefinite survival. It only increases the probability of longevity based on past resilience. It also highlights the importance of adaptation and relevance. Ultimately, the Lindy Effect teaches that durability is not just about longevity but also about withstanding the changes and challenges of time, making it a valuable lens for assessing the sustainability of ideas, institutions, and innovations.